The Kremlin Expands the Scope of Situations in Which It Claims the Legitimacy to Use Its Nuclear Arsenal Amid Allegations That Ukraine Used U.S.-Supplied Missiles to Attack Russian Territory
Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine, signed by President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, outlines the circumstances under which Moscow would use its world-leading nuclear arsenal. This updated policy drastically expands the situations in which Russia could turn to its atomic weapons, including in response to a conventional attack backed by a nuclear power.
This move follows claims by Russia that U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles were used by Ukraine to target Russian soil, with six missiles reportedly striking the Bryansk region on the same day the new doctrine was signed.
What is Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine?
The Russian nuclear doctrine, first introduced in 2020 and revised this week, lays out the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. While often framed as a deterrent, the doctrine also outlines scenarios where nuclear retaliation would be deemed necessary. This review marks an escalatory shift, particularly in light of the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has frequently threatened the West with its nuclear capabilities. However, this has not stopped Western allies from sending advanced weaponry, including missiles that have now targeted Russian territory. The revised doctrine classifies nuclear weapons as a “means of deterrence” and emphasizes their use as an “extreme and necessary measure.”
Putin’s government insists that the purpose of these nuclear weapons is to safeguard Russia’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity” while deterring any potential aggressor. Yet, the doctrine specifies that nuclear weapons could be used in response to conventional aggression if it threatens Russia’s sovereignty or territorial integrity.
What Triggers Russia’s Nuclear Response?
The updated doctrine states that Russia could deploy nuclear weapons in the following situations:
- Nuclear or WMD Attacks: A nuclear attack or the use of other weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) against Russia or its allies.
- Conventional Aggression: An attack using conventional weapons on Russian or Belarusian soil that threatens their sovereignty or territorial integrity.
- Ballistic Missile Threats: Reliable intelligence indicating a ballistic missile attack on Russia or its allies.
- Preemptive Strikes: If a conventional attack weakens Russia’s nuclear retaliation capabilities, nuclear force could be used to ensure retaliatory power remains intact.
- Strategic Military Threats: The launch or approach of strategic aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, or other aerial threats across Russian borders.
The doctrine emphasizes that any nuclear or WMD strike against Russia or its allies, or any conventional attack supported by a nuclear power, would be treated as a joint assault, escalating the conflict significantly.
An image from the Russian Defense Ministry shows the launch of a Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile during an exercise at the Plesetsk airbase in 2022 — Photo: Russian Defense Ministry/AP Photo
Is a Nuclear Response Imminent?
Before the signing of this revised doctrine, Putin had already warned both the U.S. and NATO not to allow Ukraine to attack Russia using long-range missiles supplied by the West, asserting that such actions would lead to a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesperson, has made it clear that attacks on Russian soil by Ukraine could trigger a nuclear response, especially under the newly revised nuclear policy. This marks the first time Russia has openly acknowledged the possibility of using nuclear weapons in response to a conventional strike on its territory.
Although some experts believe that the use of Western long-range missiles will not immediately trigger a nuclear response, the situation remains volatile. Jack Watling, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, stated that while such attacks may not directly provoke a nuclear escalation, Russia could still respond through other means, such as sabotage or proxy actions.
In an even more alarming statement, Dmitri Medvedev, Russia’s Security Council deputy chairman, warned that the use of NATO missiles by Ukraine could be classified as an attack by NATO countries against Russia, justifying a mass retaliatory strike, which could lead to World War III.
Conclusion: The Risk of Escalation
Tatiana Stanovaya from the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center points out that the situation is extraordinarily dangerous, with Putin possibly offering the West a stark choice: “Do you want a nuclear war? Then you’ll have it,” or “Let’s end this war on Russia’s terms.” This has prompted discussions about potential peace initiatives, though it could also support the argument for direct dialogue with Putin.
